China is expected to reduce its reliance on imported agricultural commodities over the next decade, according to a new China Agricultural Outlook Report covering 2026 through 2035. The report projects declining imports of grain, soybeans, cotton, edible oils, and sugar as domestic production capacity strengthens, and supply chains become more resilient. Grain imports are forecast to fall to 115 million tons by 2035, down 25.5 percent from recent averages. Soybean imports are projected at 82.55 million tons, a decline of 21.5 percent, while cotton and edible oil imports each drop 28.2 percent, and sugar imports fall 8.7 percent. Officials say global markets will remain a supplement, but rising geopolitical risks, including conflict in the Middle East, are increasing volatility in energy, fertilizer, and shipping costs, reinforcing a focus on domestic production and food security. In the near term, the outlook for 2026 is cautiously optimistic, with gains in grain and oilseed output expected from improved yields rather than expanded acreage. Grain production is projected to reach 753 million tons by 2035, alongside a shift toward higher-quality production and increased use of artificial intelligence.
