Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens quickly and the waterway is fully operational by July, the NDSU Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies forecasts urea prices to peak at $782 per ton. That’s well above the $470 price seen before the war, but below the record prices of 2022. If the conflict persists and the Strait remains closed through the fall of 2026, the NDSU Ag Trade Monitor estimates urea at $1,000 per ton in October and DAP at $945 per ton in November. “Even in the most optimistic scenario, we are going to expect elevated prices through the fall purchasing period and moving into 2026,” reports CAPTS Associate Director Shawn Arita. Due to the damage to the infrastructure, the report expects a long-term reduction in fertilizer production capacity in the Persian Gulf region.
