La Niña remains in place across the tropical Pacific but is expected to weaken in the coming weeks. While some forecast models suggest El Niño could develop by late spring or early summer, World Weather, Incorporated Meteorologist Drew Lerner believes that timeline is too aggressive. A more likely scenario is a gradual move toward El Niño later in the year, most likely in the fourth quarter. Subsurface ocean temperatures have been warming and are expected to surface in the eastern Pacific later this winter, which should further diminish La Niña’s influence.
