At this time of the year, grain traders start anticipating when China will start shipping cheaper South American supplies. “Typically, the U.S. hits the peak of shipments in the October or November timeframe and then, shipments trend lower into December,” said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist, StoneX Group. “Going into January, they hold constant at around 60 million bushels per week to all sources. That’s the pace we’re sitting at now and we need to hold it through January.” Suderman anticipates hearing soybean harvest reports from Brazil anytime. As soon as Brazil’s soybeans are harvested, they’re transported to ports and loaded onto ships. It takes 45 days for China to get soybeans from Brazil. “China needs to fill the gap with U.S. soybeans while they wait for those soybeans to arrive. I’ll be watching the January shipping pace closely.”
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