Drought is taking a toll on the Northern Plains spring wheat crop. USDA lowered their production estimate in the July WASDE report. Advance Trading market analyst Brian Basting agrees with the USDA. “When we ran our models, based on crop condition ratings and producer feedback, we’re right around 300 million bushels. We’ll likely see a dramatic decline in the harvested acres number, but yield may edge up a bit.” Basting thinks spring wheat abandonment could approach a record set in 1988. “In 1988, the U.S. abandoned 22 percent of the hard red spring wheat planted acreage. If we use a round number of 20 percent this year, that would be the highest number since then,” said Basing. “Unfortunately, we could see severe abandonment this year. I wouldn’t be surprised, given the immediate weather outlook, if it approached that level.”
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