Nutrien atmospheric scientist Eric Snodgrass says the current El Niño is developing faster than any previous event on record, but farmers should be cautious about assuming it will dictate summer weather patterns across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. “At this point in June, it’s the warmest the ocean temperatures have been since we’ve been measuring them consistently across the equatorial Pacific. A lot of the superlatives assigned to this El Niño are coming true.” While the weather phenomenon could become one of the strongest ever observed by winter, Snodgrass said its influence during the growing season is limited. “Throughout the Midwest, Upper Midwest and Northern Plains, the correlations are too weak between El Niño and summer weather to say it’s going to do this or that,” he said. “The story around El Niño is going to build all summer, but it’s going to reach its peak once we get toward harvest.” Snodgrass said current soil moisture conditions may be a better indicator of summer weather risks, noting July heat threats appear greater west of the 100th Meridian.
