Nitrogen fertilizer costs have increased by over $100 per ton in the two weeks since the Middle East conflict began. Supplies of other fertilizer categories are also under pressure. Comparisons have been made to the disruptions that happened in the Black Sea Region in 2022 at the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war. NDSU Center for Agricultural Supply and Trade Studies Senior Research Economist Shawn Arita says it is a very different situation today. “Back then in 2022, the Russian and Belarus fertilizers still found ways to flow out, albeit a little bit more expensive, additional logistical challenges surrounding the war and the sanctions and so forth, but they’re still flowing through the global market,” said Arita. “Right now at the Hormuz, you have a physical blockage; commercial ships aren’t going through and those plants have been shutting down, they’ve been suspending operations so that’s a big difference.” Grain prices shot up in 2022, offsetting the pain of higher input costs. The Persian Gulf isn’t a player in grain exports, so we won’t see a similar response in grain markets. Listen to the interview.
