According to American Farm Bureau Federation Vice President of Public Policy and Economic Analysis John Newton, the farm economy is in a deep trough. “What makes this environment a lot different than environments that we’ve been in the past is just how deep the losses are that we’re facing today,” said Newton. “For 2026, we’re looking at a $41 billion difference between crop revenues and the total cost of production, and that follows two years of over $30 billion in the difference between what a farmer receives for selling their crop versus the total cost to put a crop in the ground. This is five years in a row where we’ve seen those returns above total cost in the red.” Speaking at the USDA Ag Outlook Forum, Newton said the economic stress will continue in 2026. He shared an anecdote about large farmers in Ohio planning to park equipment this year rather than burn through working capital in the current environment.
