Net Farm Income Expected to Decline Further in ’26

USDA’s Economic Research Service is estimating net farm income for this year at $153.4 billion. That’s down over $1 billion from 2025. When adjusted for inflation, the cash receipts from crop production are projected to decline less than one percent. Cash receipts for corn are expected to increase more than three percent, helped by an increase in acreage. Soybean receipts are flat compared with last year, and wheat receipts decline nearly two-and-a-half percent. The cattle sector remains the shining star, with receipts expected to increase more than four percent. A downturn of nearly 13 percent is forecast in milk production. Hog receipts are forecast to drop less than one percent. USDA reports direct and ad hoc disaster payments will rise in 2026.