Trade and Tariffs Squeeze Farm Margins

Rabobank’s Fall Harvest Outlook for North America says the U.S. farm economy may need to “return to fundamentals” to stay competitive amid trade instability and high input costs. The report highlights the ongoing pressure from tariffs, policy uncertainty, and rising fertilizer prices, which continue to squeeze farm margins. Rabobank analysts say government intervention is creating added uncertainty for producers. Stephen Nicholson, global sector strategist for grains and oilseeds, stated that China has shifted nearly all of its soybean imports to Brazil, leaving the U.S. at a disadvantage. The outlook also points to structural barriers slowing sustainability adoption, with analysts warning that without stronger support, producers may struggle to manage risk while keeping costs under control heading into 2026.