Experts Caution: Tariff Pauses Don’t Equal Trade Peace

Tariff exchanges between the U.S. and trade partners have made a significant mark on the commodities markets, and in some cases, agreements to negotiate have been made. But, as some NDSU economists are saying, an agreement to negotiate is not a signed trade deal. “Just because they have agreed to stabilize or reduce the tariffs doesn’t mean that we have a deal,” says NDSU Extension Crops Economist Frayne Olson. “So, the agreement, the deal that was announced with the United Kingdom, was to redefine these negotiations, to redefine the specific areas we’re going to target, to move forward within a formal trade agreement. So, I want to be really careful, we do not have a signed written agreement where the trade agreement is finalized. That’s still many, many, months off.” Olson reiterates that while tariffs between the U.S. and China have been lowered, no actual trade deal has been finalized yet, and the process is lengthy. “There was a mutual agreement just a few days ago between the United States and China that they were going to reduce and pause any additional tariffs for 90 days. The status of the actual trade negotiations is still unknown. The actual negotiations, the time it’s going to take from now until we have a signed agreement, can still take a while. So, this is going to be a conversation and a discussion we’re going to have for an extended period of time.”