Predicting the future is difficult. That is complicated in the grain markets because there are so many variables. NDSU Crops Economist Frayne Olson says many farmers tend to focus on supply-side issues, often ignoring other indicators. “The problem is there’s like seven or eight of them and they’re all moving at the same time and sometimes, they move in opposite directions. The solid number that we know is when we actually sell some grain, when we make a sale. That’s confirmation about what’s happening, not rumor or possibility, but fact.” Olson advises growers to pay attention to demand as a way of determining short-term price direction. “Have we been selling corn into the global markets? If we have, that means that we are competitive and that we do have an underlying base that we can work from. If we’re not getting those sales, then I get worried because that means that we’re too high-priced.”
