The U.S. winter wheat crop may be smaller than expected. “The drought in the plains is bringing down the national winter wheat crop conditions,” says Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist, StoneX Group. “The latest condition index score was the second lowest on record for this time of the year, only by a few points compared to the 1996 crop. That almost guarantees us at least some level of a short wheat crop this year.” Suderman still believes Ukraine’s crop forecasts are optimistic. “There’s a psychological reason for that. You have to have hope in order to survive, but we’re starting to see challenges in production without much-needed resources.” If world wheat supplies get tighter, this could result in food shortages in less developed countries, like in North Africa and Pakistan.
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