North Dakota Wheat Commission Policy and Marketing Director Jim Peterson says the USDA’s Small Grains Summary production forecast caught the market slightly off guard. Expectations were for steady to higher production compared to August. “Based on what we saw with the Farm Service Agency acreage certification that came out earlier, we had a feeling acreage would drop, especially for durum. When it comes to yields, we had heard disappointment in some areas of North Dakota, but there were also phenomenal yields, but the changing wheat yield to 50 bushels per acre for spring wheat was surprising.” Pre-report estimates for durum were in the low to mid-70-million-bushel range, but USDA tightened up durum production even more. There may be more support in the markets for durum. “In both durum and spring wheat, we are anticipating good demand opportunities if we can break through macroeconomic headwinds, like the strength of the dollar and inflationary impacts.”
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