El Niño May Develop Slower Than Forecast

Recent forecast models may be overstating how quickly and how strong the next El Niño could develop, according to World Weather Incorporated. New outlooks from NOAA and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology suggest El Niño conditions could begin as early as May and strengthen rapidly through the summer. World Weather Incorporated says those projections rely heavily on unusually strong easterly winds in the equatorial Pacific that are unlikely to persist for several months. The firm still expects El Niño to form later this year but believes the event’s strength may be overstated, with ocean temperatures likely warming more gradually through late spring and summer before the pattern fully develops.