K-State Economist Says U.S. Herd Expansion Still on Hold

Kansas State University Agricultural Economics Professor Glynn Tonsor says the U.S. cattle herd has yet to begin its long-anticipated rebuild, with missing data from the canceled October Cattle on Feed report leaving a major gap in understanding heifer retention. Tonsor said the lack of updated steer–heifer mix information limits clarity, adding, “my best guess is that the January cattle inventory report is going to say we are the same as last year. I still think we are going to expand the herd, but it hasn’t started yet.” Tonsor also cautioned that even when expansion begins, the next cattle cycle will peak lower than the last due to productivity gains. “We get so much more beef out of every cow in the system that we do not need as many cows to hit a global-driven beef volume target. A real consequence of that is fewer cows are needed in this industry.”