March is the fourth month in a row USDA released a soybean carryover number well-below pipeline supplies in the Supply and Demand report. “It’s only about half of the typical pipeline supply,” said Tim Marsh, analyst, Summit Commodities. “This is USDA’s way of saying we’re going to be short on soybeans this summer. They first put a number out like that in November. When you’re faced with a potential shortage of soybeans, human nature is human nature. The buyers of U.S. soybeans likely stocked up on soybeans, meaning sales going forward may drop off severely and countries could cancel purchases.” Going forward, there’s not as much fresh news for the grain trade. The USDA’s Prospective Plantings report will be released March 31 and Marsh says traders will also monitor the South American crop.
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