Many unknowns remain about the phase one trade deal with China. International Food Policy Research Institute Senior Research Fellow Joe Glauber says one concern is how you physically go about selling $40 to $50 billion in agricultural products to China. “We’re talking about an increase of $16 billion. The question becomes where does the increase come from?” Further complicating the issue, Glauber says the African Swine Fever outbreak will reduce the amount of soybeans that China needs to import. “Some of the increase could come in terms of higher value products. China needs pork. They could import more poultry or beef. China could get rid of a lot of non-tariff trade barriers in the meat sector, too.” Glauber is the former chief economist for USDA.
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