In its latest 10 year outlook, Rabo AgriFinance Senior Grain and Oilseed analyst Steve Nicholson says the U.S. will continue to increase production and the trade war will have an impact, especially on soybeans. “Upwards of $2.50 per bushel can be attributed to things outside of the balance sheet of soybeans,” says Nicholson. “We’re shooting ourselves in the foot. African swine fever is making an impact, too.” On the flip side, Nicholson says soybean crush margins are good. “The expansion of soybean crush facilities are good for soybeans and U.S. soybean demand. There’s a 75 percent probability in 10 years that the national average soybean prices will be $9.60 or lower.” Corn and wheat prices will be pressured by an oversupply, flat domestic usage and increased global trade competition. Without any change in ethanol policy, Rabo AgriFinance predicts feed usage will overtake ethanol as the demand driver for corn. “We look at what’s happening with the livestock and continue to see good growth and export business there,” says Nicholson. “This will be good for corn.”
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