In the next three months, NDSU Extension Crops Marketing Economist Frayne Olson thinks the U.S. find out very quickly if China can survive without U.S. soybeans. “My personal opinion is I don’t think they’ll have to buy many beans at all. We have to think about the economics versus the politics of this. Right now, the politics are winning,” says Olson. “One big question is whether China is able to adjust fast enough. Have they been able to build up enough inventories and cut usage fast enough to get through these winter months? Once we get into spring and the Brazilians start harvesting their soybeans, there will be fresh beans on the market.” Olson adds Brazil can export soybeans to China, repurchase U.S. soybeans and bring them into Brazil to crush for domestic use. However, logistics would be a challenge once the U.S. crop is in Brazil.
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