USDA Chief Economist Justin Benavidez, who has been on the job for a matter of weeks, oversaw the Agriculture Department’s annual outlook conference. Over the past ten years, Benavidez said agriculture has faced headwinds from large supplies interrupted by brief moments of price support from Black Swan events. What’s the outlook for 2026? “The story for the year is progress being made on price, not hitting it out of the park, not solving everyone’s problems in terms of pricing overnight, but prices generally expected to move modestly higher.” The USDA economist said the federal support will only increase this year. “Direct government payments here in 2026 are forecast at roughly $44 billion or 25 percent of net cash farm income.”
